GREATER MONCTON REAL ESTATE BOARD
RESIDENTIAL HOUSING MARKET – NOVEMBER 30, 2011
Residential Sales
Sales in November totalled 184 down from 202 in November 2010 and 192 in October of this year, thus continuing the traditional slump into the Christmas period. The YTD stats for 2011 show a 0.7% increase in total sales compared with the same period last year but it should be recalled that 2010 (and 2009) showed poorer performance compared with the previous 3 years 2006-2008.
New Residential Listings
The number of new listings accepted has been declining since June and the November stats confirm this continuance. However the YTD totals are still about 5% higher than last year. The number of homes left at the end of the month totalled 1744 some 3% higher than the same period last year. In addition the number of months’ inventory reached 9.5 continuing the upward trend from the low levels of April and May. This is likely indicating that the much sought after “balanced” market is still eluding us.
Average Selling Price of Houses
The average home price in November 2011 was $158,900 and YTD was $157,500 up about 3% from the same period last year. In fact the average annual increase in the selling prices is averaging about +3.5% since 2006.
Note: the usual caution on the statistic “average house price” is given: The stat for any given month can be influenced by the no. of sales in any given price category and is not necessarily related to the value of housing in general. For example, if there was a significant increase in the no. of homes sold in a high priced category (>$400,000) then this would have a significant increase on the average selling price. At the same time there might not be any increase in the lower priced homes.
Overall Assessment and Projection
The first 11 months of this year indicate that we are running about the same as last year with regard to sales performance; as pointed out above these 2 years exhibited dismal volumes compared with the three previous years. Since average house selling prices continue to increase while sales decrease it would tend to indicate that sellers are letting their listings expire rather than accept low offers.
The nervousness that has been felt in recent years seems to be related more to overall world economic conditions (Euro zone, U.S.) than to events here in Canada. In fact housing sales in other parts of Canada are quite buoyant, helped along by the low prevailing interest rates. However, there are a few local factors that need to watched closely:
- building permits for new construction are again at record levels (also influenced by the comparatively low interest rates that have prevailed).
- As pointed out above, for sale inventory levels are at their highest in recent memory; a continuation of the buyers’ market could be contributing to the dampening effect.
- We are starting to get feedback from some lending sources that foreclosures in the region are starting to climb and if this continues will contribute to the housing surplus.
Source of Data: CREA Activity Reports (residential stats only)
November 2011